EDITORIAL: The Fright Stuff

Editorial by Louis Smith

8/31/2007

The regional airlines, which feed the major airlines their passengers, will soon be feeding them nearly all their pilots. The U.S. major airlines are projected to hire more than 50,000 pilots during the next 12 years, or more than twice the 20,000 pilots now employed by the regionals. These numbers add up to not just a shortage but a complete pilot staffing meltdown for regional airlines, which are the primary source of pilots for the major airlines.

These smaller feeder airlines are reducing the minimum qualifications for new pilots at a frantic pace, and some have started to raid other airlines' pilot work forces by offering signing bonuses for pilots who are current and qualified in their aircraft. Minimum qualifications for pilot employment at the regional airlines will soon fall to FAA minimums, which will increase training failures.

Due to fleet growth and pilot attrition, the regional airlines are aggressively recruiting fresh graduates from colleges and flight schools that train professional pilots.  In addition the regional airlines are recruiting many of the experienced instructors from these same schools.  It's the aeronautical equivalent of “eating your seed corn.”

This is not a good scenario and it’s only a matter of time before airline passengers begin raising the inevitable questions. Has the lack of pilots caused the reliability of air travel to decline and—much more ominously—is it undermining air travel safety? If a regional aircraft crashes in this environment, you can bet the press will be asking these questions. At that point, broadening public skepticism of airline safety will displace the lack of pilots as the industry’s number one problem.

Fortunately the industry has time to minimize the impact of this crisis, but it’s important to understand how we got here.

Four significant developments have caused this impending crisis and reduced the ability of the regional airline sector to attract competent, professional aviators.

Diminished supply of military aviators

In decades past, it was a given—many aspiring pilots who wanted to become an airline pilot learned to fly in the military and then later went with the airlines. The airlines gladly recruited the highly-trained military aviators with ample turbine experience, screened and filtered by the military system of testing, qualification and elimination, so they could hire the cream of the crop, with easily verifiable professional credentials. Industrywide, ex-military pilots would fill 80 percent of newly hired pilot classes. Then, the military services made adjustments including increased service commitments and retention bonuses. The resulting job security was far superior to anything the post-9/11 passenger airlines could offer. In addition, the military has shrunk its aviator force by nearly half.

Reduced pay and benefits and lack of legacy referrals

In decades past, most airline pilots would gladly recommend our industry and the piloting profession to anyone who wanted to listen. The personal pride and satisfaction was obvious with every conversation. Start a conversation today with any working or retired pilot from Delta, Northwest, United or US Airways, etc., and you’ll likely get an immediate “thumbs down’ on the profession. Ubiquitous pay cuts and pension terminations have taken their toll, and it will take years to reverse the damage to the pilot profession’s reputation.

Growth of corporate aviation

The demand for pilots among fractional jet operators, air taxi, and corporate flight departments will nearly equal the pilot demand for major airlines during the next 12 years. Much of this growth is driven by high-yield business travelers defecting from the congested, time-wasting lines at airport security checkpoints. This sector can afford to pay whatever it takes to recruit and keep quality aviators and represents a significant competitor to the airline sector, especially the regional airlines.

Bifurcation of the airline pilot career

Airline managers successfully convinced the pilot unions to accept the establishment of a career caste system for professional pilots. Now nearly 20,000 pilots are flying smaller jets with the regional airline industry in operations that feed passengers to the major airlines. Graduates of our aviation colleges and private flight schools are faced with mountains of personal debt, and their first offer from our industry could be a job offering monthly net pay less than the debt service on their educational and training loans. Many graduates may accept a job in the regional sector but leave as soon as a better-paying job is available, or perhaps avoid working in the regional sector altogether. In addition, these first officer jobs are distinctly different than airline offers of past decades. I remember my first month’s pay of $600 as a newly hired airline pilot in 1976, but I could look forward to significant increases in pay during year two and beyond—plus I wouldn’t be required to run the gauntlet of screening and selection for future crew positions. I was on the pilot seniority list and covered by a collective bargaining agreement that defined my relationship with my new airline. There were certainly no guarantees, but at least I wasn’t required to start over to progress in my pilot career.

The airline industry must take the following steps to minimize the impact of the pilot staffing crisis in the regional sector. 

Abolish the B-scale

Although it would be unpopular with airline managers who must reach agreements with their respective pilot unions, the two-tier airline career (which is essentially a B-scale arrangement) should be abolished. The entire concept of sub-contracting flying to a smaller airline with smaller jets has produced a counterproductive, unworkable caste system, and I believe the pilot wages and benefits at these carriers are artificially low as a result.

During the last major airline pilot hiring spree, some carriers developed “flow-up” arrangements for pilots at the regional airlines, whereby the pilots were able to progress to the mainline carrier based on a set of conditions and without any additional screening and selection functions. This prearranged seniority system allowed the regional carriers to attract qualified pilots, but the flow-up failed miserably during the post-9/11 avalanche of furloughed pilots “flowing back” to the regional airline. Besides, it doesn’t prevent the regional airline pilot from defecting to another major airline if the offer arrives prior to the pre-established transition from his regional airline. Merging the pilot seniority lists and establishing collective bargaining agreements to allow for a seamless pilot career won’t be easy, but neither is flying a scheduled airline without any pilots showing up for the trips or testifying in front of a congressional committee investigating the latest crash.

Establish a permanent instructor work force

Because of the shift to a civilian pilot source, the days of low-time pilot instructors building thousands of flight hours to further their career are over. Although new professional pilots gain valuable experience and seasoning as primary flight instructors, the industry must develop a corps of permanent instructors and the FAA must establish a higher standard for flight schools that train professional pilots. Human resource professionals can determine the proper method of validating the selection process for these permanent instructors. And yes, it will be expensive.

Develop extensive grants, scholarships and loan programs

Our industry has enjoyed a significant military subsidy of trained aviators during the last 60 years, but now must adapt to the civilian sector as its primary source of pilots. It’s a radical change to grow your own pilots, but I frankly don’t see any other choice. If the industry really wants to hire the best and the brightest, it needs to find a way to pay. The colleges and flight schools that train professional pilots must organize under a well-coordinated umbrella of standards and guarantees. Given the reduced rewards of today’s professional pilot career, the industry must take steps to reduce the financial risk shouldered by pilot career aspirants.

Louis Smith is president of FLTops.com and a retired Northwest Airlines captain.